Glossary
Ticker (scrip)
The stock's short trading code on the exchange.
→ Use it to look the company up on amarstock.com or dsebd.org.
Category (A/B/Z/N)
The exchange's grade for the company. A = pays regular dividend and holds its AGM on time. B = irregular dividend. Z = no dividend / not operating / rule-breaker (worst). N = newly listed.
✓ A
✕ Z
→ Keep your core in A. Treat Z as high-risk gambling only.
Sector
The industry group (bank, pharma, textile, etc.).
→ Don't put all your money in one sector — spread it.
LTP — Last Traded Price
The most recent price one share changed hands at, in Taka. This is 'today's price' every other number compares against.
→ Prices here are end-of-day, not live ticks.
EPS — Earnings Per Share
The company's yearly profit divided by its number of shares: how much the business earned per share.
✓ positive and growing
✕ negative (losing money)
→ Negative EPS means the business is losing money — be very careful.
Composite artificial-activity score
Our engine blends how far the price stretched, how many daily price-limit hits it had, how fast it ran, and float games into one number. Higher = more artificial-activity fingerprints.
✓ low (under 110)
✕ high (over 450)
→ A high score means concentrated operators are likely running it — not for your core money.
Band (score in words)
A plain-word bucket for the score: organic = clean, then elevated / strong / extreme as the artificial-activity signature grows.
✓ organic
✕ extreme-synd
→ Only an 'organic' name belongs in a long-term core.
Stretch above 200-day average (%)
How far today's price sits above (or below) its 200-day average price, in %. A big positive number means the price has run far above normal and is prone to snap back.
✓ near 0
✕ very high (over 60%)
→ Don't chase a stock stretched far above its 200-day line.
Sharp-fall probability (%)
Our model's estimate of the chance this stock drops hard soon, based on its engineered-rise pattern.
✓ low
✕ 10% or higher
→ Higher = closer to the sharp fall. Don't be the last buyer.
Price-cycle phase
Where in the boom-and-bust cycle the stock looks to be: DORMANT (quiet) -> ACCUMULATION (quiet buying) -> MID-MARKUP (rising) -> PEAK-DISTRIBUTION (top, insiders selling) -> DUMPING (crashing).
✓ ACCUMULATION
✕ PEAK-DISTRIBUTION / DUMPING
→ PEAK-DISTRIBUTION and DUMPING are the highest-risk phases in the cycle; ACCUMULATION and DORMANT are the quieter ones.
Engine action
The engine's one-word suggestion for this stock right now (watch / accumulate / exit, etc.).
→ It's a shortcut — still read the trap and way-out before acting.
Slow-burn activity
Flags slow, quiet artificial activity that hides under the radar — small daily rises instead of obvious limit-ups.
✓ no
✕ yes
→ A 'yes' is stealth artificial activity — treat it like any concentrated-operator name.
Artificial-activity history
This ticker has been named or fined by the regulator, or is a repeat vehicle for artificial price activity.
✓ no
✕ yes
→ A 'yes' is notorious — sleeve-only gambling money at most, never core.
Money-flow (our 'sentiment')
Whether trading volume shows real accumulation (buying pressure) or distribution (selling into strength). DSE has no reliable social-media sentiment, so we read the MONEY instead of chatter.
✓ acc (accumulation)
✕ dist (distribution)
→ Distribution means the volume shows net selling into strength; accumulation shows net buying.
BSEC investigation flag
The regulator (BSEC) is actively investigating this name for artificial price activity — the strongest negative 'sentiment' signal we have.
✓ no
✕ yes
→ Under investigation carries the risk of a trading halt or penalty.
Dividend sustainability
Can the company keep paying its dividend? SUSTAINABLE = paid from real profit. WATCH = tight. AT-RISK = paying out more than it earns, so a cut is likely.
✓ SUSTAINABLE
✕ AT-RISK
→ Don't hold an AT-RISK stock just for its dividend.
Payout ratio (%)
The share of yearly profit paid out as dividend. Over 100% means it's paying more than it earns (often by borrowing or draining reserves) — unsustainable.
✓ under 70%
✕ over 100%
→ Over 100% is a red flag for a future dividend cut.
Dividend yield (%)
The yearly dividend as a % of the price — your cash return if the dividend holds.
✓ high AND sustainable (6%+)
✕ high but AT-RISK (a trap)
→ Only trust a high yield when the fundamentals say SUSTAINABLE.
Earnings trend
The direction of yearly earnings: rising (business improving) or falling (worsening).
✓ rising
✕ falling
→ Falling earnings often come before a dividend cut and a price drop.
Insider (sponsor) trades, 1yr
Net buying or selling by the company's own directors/sponsors over the last year. Insiders buying = confidence; heavy selling = caution.
✓ net buying
✕ heavy selling
→ Insiders dumping their own shares is a warning.
Beta (market sensitivity)
How much this stock moves versus the whole market. 1.0 = moves with the market; 1.5 = swings about 1.5x as hard both up and down; below 1 = calmer.
✓ 1 or below (steadier)
✕ over 1.3 (amplifies crashes)
→ High beta means bigger drops in a downturn — size the position smaller.
Market correlation
How tightly the stock follows the market index: 0 = independent, 1 = moves in lockstep.
✓ lower (more independent)
→ High correlation gives you little diversification benefit.
Solvency (bankruptcy risk)
A bankruptcy-risk grade from the Altman-Z model. SAFE = financially sound. GREY = watch. DISTRESS = real bankruptcy risk.
✓ SAFE
✕ DISTRESS
→ DISTRESS signals real bankruptcy risk, regardless of how cheap the price looks.
Solvency trend
Is that financial health RECOVERING, STABLE, or DETERIORATING over recent years?
✓ RECOVERING
✕ DETERIORATING
→ A GREY name that's DETERIORATING is heading the wrong way.
Altman-Z score
The number behind the solvency grade. Higher is safer: over 2.6 safe, 1.1-2.6 grey, under 1.1 distress.
✓ over 2.6
✕ under 1.1
→ Banks and insurers don't fit this model, so they show as N/A.
Earnings quality
Whether the reported profit is backed by real cash. PAPER-PROFIT = they book a profit but their cash flow is negative — an accounting red flag.
✓ OK
✕ PAPER-PROFIT
→ PAPER-PROFIT can mean the earnings aren't real — be skeptical.
Cash conversion
How much of the reported profit turns into actual operating cash. Near or above 1 is healthy; negative means profit isn't becoming cash.
✓ 0.8 or above
✕ negative
→ Negative cash conversion means poor earnings quality.
ROE — Return on Equity (%)
Profit as a % of shareholders' money — how well the company uses its owners' capital.
✓ high and steady (15%+)
✕ very low or erratic
→ Compare within the same sector. A suspiciously huge ROE can be an accounting artifact.
ROA — Return on Assets (%)
Profit as a % of all the company's assets — how efficiently the whole business generates profit.
✓ higher
✕ near zero or negative
→ Low ROA means the business isn't using its assets well.
P/E ratio (official)
Price-to-Earnings from the official exchange: price divided by yearly earnings per share. Roughly the years of earnings you pay for one share.
✓ reasonable for the sector
✕ very high, or negative (no earnings)
→ Very high P/E means expensive expectations; negative means no profit.
Sponsor holding % (official)
The % of the company owned by its sponsors/directors, from the official exchange. More insider ownership = more skin in the game.
✓ high and stable
✕ low or falling
→ A falling sponsor holding can signal insiders exiting.
Data verified vs exchange
Did our data match the official exchange record? OK = verified against dsebd.org.
✓ OK
→ Trust the numbers more when this says OK.
Overall classification
A descriptive classification of the stock — strong-clean, fair, mixed, or high-risk — from combining artificial-activity signals, fundamentals and valuation. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
✓ strong / clean
✕ high-risk
→ A summary classification; read the detailed fields for the full picture.
Fair value (CEILING, not a target)
What the stock MIGHT be worth IF it re-rated to peer valuations. DSE keeps quality structurally cheap, so this rarely happens — treat it as an upside ceiling, not a promise.
✕ treating it as a guaranteed price
→ Do NOT expect the price to reach this. The real return is dividend + earnings growth.
Fair-value range
The bear-to-bull spread around the fair-value estimate. A wide range means high uncertainty (normal on DSE).
→ A wide range means low confidence.
Upside to ceiling (%)
How far the fair-value ceiling sits above today's price. It often looks huge on cheap DSE stocks because it assumes a re-rating that usually never comes.
✕ treating a big number as guaranteed
→ Discount it heavily — it's a ceiling, not a forecast.
Forecast confidence
How much to trust the forecast. On DSE this is always LOW — price prediction is unreliable here.
→ Low confidence means lean on rules and risk control, not the target.
Historical value zone
The price area around the moving-average support where the stock has historically traded in the lower part of its range. Descriptive, not a recommendation.
→ Price near this area is in its lower historical range.
Historical breakdown level
A price below which the stock has historically broken down; buffered slightly against fake 'stop-hunt' dips. Descriptive, not a recommendation.
→ An observed level where past declines accelerated.
Target — take profit / trail
A reference profit level and trailing plan — where to take some profit or trail your stop up.
→ Take partial profit into strength; let winners run with a trailing stop.
Seasonal pattern
A historical seasonal lean, not a clock: quality names often dip Jun-Aug (post-budget); concentrated-operator names tend to build Nov-Jan and unwind in Jun and Sep.
→ A recurring seasonal pattern, not a rule.
The trap
The specific way this stock could hurt a retail buyer — engineered-rise signature, dividend cut, wash volume, penny category, and so on.
→ Read this before buying — it's the 'what could go wrong'.
What the analysis shows
A plain-language summary of the stock's overall profile from the analysis. Descriptive, not a recommendation.
→ A summary of the profile; the decision is yours.
Final grade (two-axis)
The two-axis verdict. A-quality = clean price history AND financially sound. ok = acceptable. caution = mixed. high-risk = a history of artificial price activity or distress.
✓ A-quality
✕ high-risk
→ Higher grade = a cleaner, financially sounder profile.
Summary
A plain-language summary tying all the signals together for this stock.
→ Read it as the one-paragraph story of the stock.
Signal score (overall quality)
Our single 'best stock' score: higher = a cleaner, safer, better-positioned stock. It blends grade, rating, artificial-activity band, solvency, dividend health, phase and money-flow (and penalises sharp-fall risk, paper-profit, known artificial-activity operators). The table is sorted by this by default, best first.
✓ high (100+)
✕ low or negative
→ Start reading from the top - but still check each stock's trap and way-out before buying.
Concentrated operators
A group that coordinates to drive a stock's price up (drawing in retail buyers), then sells into that demand. They drive most DSE turnover, so spotting their fingerprints is the whole game.
→ Assume the other side of a hot, stretched stock is concentrated operators — not luck.
Wash trade
Fake trades where the same players buy and sell to each other to create the illusion of volume and interest. It shows up as abnormal float churn.
→ Don't trust 'high volume' alone — it can be manufactured.
Circuit breaker
A daily price limit (about plus/minus 10%) that halts a stock from moving further that day. Repeated upper-circuit hits are an engineered-rise fingerprint.
→ Many upper-circuit days in a row = engineered activity, not organic demand.
200-day moving average
The average price over the last ~10 months — a slow 'fair trend' line. Price far above it is stretched.
→ Use it as the baseline the stretch % measures against.
The two-axis idea
Our core method: judge every stock on TWO questions — (1) Is the price showing artificial activity? (2) Is it a real, solvent business? You want NO on artificial activity and YES on the business.
→ A stock must pass BOTH axes to be core-worthy.
Re-rating
When the market decides to value a stock at a higher multiple (P/E). On DSE, quality stays cheap and rarely re-rates — which is why our 'fair value' is a ceiling, not a target.
→ Don't build a plan on a re-rating that probably won't come.
Margin of safety
Buying well below a conservative fair value, so mistakes and bad luck hurt less. Your protection when forecasts are unreliable.
→ Insist on a discount before buying — it's your cushion.
Why price prediction fails on DSE
On DSE, prices are driven by artificial activity and thin trading, not fundamentals — so predicting exact prices fails. We focus on risk control, detecting artificial activity, and mechanical exits instead.
→ Trust rules and exits, not price 'targets'.
Moving average (MA)
The average closing price over a set number of recent days, drawn as a smooth line. It filters daily noise to show the underlying trend.
→ Price above a rising MA = uptrend; below a falling MA = downtrend.
20-day moving average
Average price over the last ~1 month (20 trading days). A fast line that reacts quickly — marks short-term support and the value zone.
→ A dip to the 20-day line in an uptrend is a common re-entry area.
50-day moving average
Average price over the last ~2.5 months (50 trading days). A medium-term trend line, often used as a stop reference.
→ A close below the 50-day often means the medium trend weakened.
DSEX — DSE Broad Index
The main Dhaka Stock Exchange index: a weighted average of most listed shares. Shows the overall market direction.
✓ rising
✕ falling
→ Use it as the market backdrop — a rising tide helps most stocks.
DSES — Shariah Index
The DSE Shariah index — tracks only Shariah-compliant shares.
→ Relevant if you invest only in Shariah-compliant stocks.
DS30 — Blue-chip Index
Index of 30 large, established DSE companies — a gauge of the big, liquid 'blue-chip' stocks.
→ Compare DS30 vs DSEX to see if big caps or the broad market leads.
YCP — Yesterday's Close
The previous trading day's closing price. Today's change is measured against it.
→ Today's % change = (price − YCP) ÷ YCP.
Support
A price level where buyers have repeatedly stepped in, tending to stop further falls.
→ The 'historical value zone' is a support area.
Resistance
A price level where sellers have repeatedly appeared, tending to cap further rises.
→ The 'historical upper range' is a resistance area.
Market breadth
How many stocks rose vs fell on the day. Broad gains (many up) are healthier than an index pulled up by a few.
✓ more up than down
✕ few up, many down
→ Weak breadth on an up day = a fragile rally.
Volume
Number of shares traded in a period. High volume shows real interest; a move on high volume is more convincing.
→ Beware a price rise on abnormally high volume — can be wash trading.
Floor price
A regulator-set minimum below which a stock can't trade. It traps sellers and freezes real price discovery.
✕ stuck on the floor
→ A stock stuck on its floor is effectively un-sellable.
Free float
The share of stock actually available to public trading (excludes locked sponsor/government holdings). Low float is easy to move artificially.
✕ very low float
→ Low free float + a sharp run-up is a classic engineered-rise setup.
Turnover
Total taka value traded (price × volume). Market turnover shows how active and liquid trading is.
→ Rising turnover = more participation.
Volatility
How much a price swings. High volatility = bigger, faster moves both ways = higher risk.
✕ very high for a core holding
→ Size positions smaller in high-volatility names.
Liquidity
How easily you can buy or sell without moving the price. Thin stocks are hard to exit at a fair price.
✓ high
✕ low (thin)
→ Prefer liquid names; illiquid ones trap you.
Unrealized profit/loss
Your on-paper gain/loss on holdings you still own (current price vs your buy price). It becomes real only when you sell.
→ Green = paper gain, red = paper loss — nothing is locked in until you sell.
Bad-loan ratio (NPL proxy)
For banks: specific provisions ÷ loans — a floor estimate of classified/uncollectable loans. Banks under-provision and reschedule, so the true bad-loan rate is usually higher.
✓ low (under 3%)
✕ high (over 5%)
→ High or rising = asset-quality trouble — a bank solvency red flag.
Provision drag
For banks: loan-loss provisions as a % of profit-before-provision — how much of the bank's earnings bad loans are eating.
✓ low
✕ high (over 60%)
→ Over 100% means bad loans wiped out the operating profit.
Life fund (৳ bn)
For life insurers: the accumulated policyholders' fund — premiums plus investment income, minus claims, surrenders and expenses, built up over the years. The core measure of a life insurer's strength.
✓ large and growing
✕ shrinking or negative
→ A negative (deficit) life fund is severe distress — obligations exceed the fund.
Life-fund growth (%/yr)
For life insurers: how fast the life fund is growing per year. Growth means inflows (premium + returns) beat outflows (claims + expenses). A shrinking fund means the opposite.
✓ positive / growing
✕ negative / shrinking
→ A steadily falling fund signals the book is running off faster than it is replenished.
Claims / premium (%)
For life insurers: net claims and surrenders as a % of premium collected. Above 100% means payouts exceed new premium, so the fund leans on investment income to stay level.
✓ under 100%
✕ well over 100%
→ Persistently high claims-to-premium with a falling fund is a warning sign.
Management expense / premium (%)
For life insurers: total management expenses as a % of premium. High expense ratios erode the fund and breach the regulator's expense limits.
✓ lower
✕ high (over 45%)
→ Very high expense ratios at small/new insurers eat into policyholder value.
RSI (14-day)
Momentum gauge 0-100. Below 30 = oversold, above 70 = overbought. DSE backtest: oversold (RSI under 30) is our strongest measured bounce signal (+7.8 edge); overbought has NO edge here.
✓ under 30 (oversold bounce tendency)
→ Only the oversold side carries measured signal on DSE.
MACD state
Trend-momentum indicator (12/26/9). 'Bullish' = MACD line above its signal line. DSE backtest: the crossover itself showed NO edge — read it as trend description only.
→ Descriptive only; crossovers did not predict on DSE.
Bollinger position
Where price sits vs its 20-day average ±2 standard deviations. Below the lower band = statistically washed-out (DSE backtest: +6.2 edge for a bounce); above upper = stretched (no edge).
✓ below lower band
→ The lower-band side is the one with measured DSE signal.
Volatility (annualized %)
How wildly the price swings in a normal year. 25% = calm; 60%+ = violent swings — position smaller.
✓ lower
✕ very high
→ Size positions inversely to volatility.
Max drawdown (5y %)
The worst peak-to-bottom fall in the last 5 years — the pain a holder actually endured.
✓ shallow
✕ deeper than -60%
→ Assume a repeat is possible; can you sit through it?
Daily VaR 95%
On the worst 1-in-20 days, the stock loses at least this much. A one-day risk yardstick.
✓ small
✕ under -4%
→ A quick feel for single-day downside.
Days to exit ৳1 lakh
Trading days needed to sell a ৳100,000 position at 10% of normal daily volume without moving the price. Liquidity in practical terms.
✓ under 2
✕ over 10 (trap risk)
→ Illiquid names trap you exactly when you need out.
Dividend-model value (crude)
A rough intrinsic value from the cash dividend (Gordon model, 14% required return, growth from the EPS trend). Only meaningful for steady dividend payers.
→ A crude anchor, not a target — ignore for non-payers.
Dividend-model gap (%)
How far the dividend-model value sits from the current price. Positive = price below the dividend-implied value.
✓ positive
✕ deeply negative
→ One more valuation lens; weakest of the three (P/NAV, fair-value, DDM).
Sector strength rank
Where this stock's sector ranks among all sectors by the last 60 days' average return — sector rotation in one number.
✓ top third
✕ bottom third
→ Strong sectors carry their members; weak sectors drag them.
Rank among sector peers
This stock's position within its own sector by analysis score (1 = strongest peer).
✓ near 1
✕ near the bottom
→ Prefer the strongest name in a sector over the laggards.
Institutional holding (%)
Share held by institutions (funds, banks). The 'smart money' block of the shareholder register.
✓ meaningful (10%+)
→ Watch the CHANGE more than the level.
Foreign holding (%)
Share held by foreign investors — the most selective money on DSE.
→ Foreign exit waves have historically led market slides.
Smart-money flow (MoM pp)
Month-over-month change in institutional + foreign holding, in percentage points. Positive = professionals accumulating; negative = professionals leaving.
✓ positive
✕ sharply negative
→ Institutions exit quietly before trouble — a falling number is an early warning.
Most predictive factor (this stock)
Of all measured indicators, the one whose level best correlated with this stock's NEXT 10-day moves across its full history. Market-wide the winner is distance from the 200-day average (mean reversion).
→ Watch this factor on this stock more than the others.
Its correlation (IC)
Spearman rank correlation between that factor's level and the next 10-day return. Negative = high readings led to weaker returns (mean reversion). Beyond ±0.05 is meaningful for daily data.
→ Small numbers are normal; direction matters more than size.
Cycle state (now)
Where the stock sits in its accumulation → markup → distribution → markdown cycle, detected from DSE history since 1999 (weekly price+volume). ACCUM = quiet base-building; MARKUP = rising after breakout; DIST = topping with heavy churn.
✓ ACCUM (early)
✕ DIST (late)
→ Backtest caveat: only ~27% of breakouts reach +25%, but winners are large — a low-probability, high-payoff pattern that worked mainly in bull markets.
Weeks in current state
How long the stock has been in its current cycle state. Compare with its own typical accumulation length.
→ An accumulation far longer than typical often means a dormant base, not an imminent move.
Typical accumulation (weeks)
Median length of this stock's own historical accumulation phases before breakout.
→ Time reference for the current base.
P(markup ≥ +25%) (%)
From this stock's own history: share of detected accumulation breakouts that went on to gain at least 25%. A per-stock success probability, not a promise.
✓ 40%+
✕ under 20%
→ Historical frequency only; most breakouts fail — position accordingly.
Accumulation month (mode)
Calendar month in which this stock's accumulation phases most often began. Market-wide, accumulations cluster May-June (post-budget) and Nov-Dec.
→ Seasonality tendency, not a rule.
Distribution month (mode)
Calendar month in which this stock's distribution (topping) phases most often began. Market-wide, distribution clusters Sep-Oct and Jan — typically 2-4 months before AGM season.
→ Watch for churn in this month if the stock has run up.
AGM month
The month this company usually holds its AGM. Distribution has historically clustered 2-4 months before AGMs market-wide (a run-up into declaration, then selling before/at record date).
→ Combine with the cycle state: run-up + approaching AGM = classic distribution window.
Next record date
The upcoming record date (entitlement cut-off) announced to DSE, when available. Prices often behave differently before vs after it.
→ After the record date, the dividend reason to hold expires — watch for post-record selling.
Diversification
Spreading money across different stocks and sectors so one bad holding doesn't sink you.
→ Don't put most of your money in one stock or one sector.