MERCINS

Mercantile Islami Insurance PLC · Insurance · Cat A

16/100

High risk

৳45.4

Score breakdown

Technical read

RSI (14)74.5

MACDbearish

Bollingerinside bands (+1.4σ)

Price cycle (Wyckoff)MARKUP

Health trenddeteriorating

Flow pressureaccumulation

Valuation

Fair value29.7 (20.8-38.6)

Upside-35.00%

Dividend yield+2.20%

Fundamental verdictWATCH

ConfidenceLOW (re-rate ceiling, not target)

Levels

Resistance

৳45.5

৳47

৳48.5

৳50

Support

৳45.4

৳44

৳42.6

৳41.2

Historical bounce zones

Sep 22, 2025: ৳23.7→৳27.5 +16%

Nov 9, 2025: ৳22.4→৳26.5 +18%

Dec 22, 2025: ৳22.5→৳25.9 +15%

Jan 11, 2026: ৳23.7→৳27.3 +15%

Feb 10, 2026: ৳23→৳26.6 +16%

Mar 8, 2026: ৳22.5→৳27.5 +22%

May 5, 2026: ৳24.5→৳42.3 +73%

Jun 22, 2026: ৳38.1→৳46 +21%

Historical outlook

Based on how similar setups behaved historically — not a prediction of what will happen.

10-day 40% vs 40% market avg Typical move: -6.4% / -1.3% / 5.4%

30-day 31% vs 42% market avg Typical move: -11.2% / -2.7% / 8.7%

Signals: RSI>70 overbought|Stretch>50% vs MA200|Stochastic>80|MACD bear cross

Reference levels

Descriptive reference points from the analysis — not instructions to buy or sell.

Entry readWAIT (until clears both axes)

Reference stopn/a

Reference target—

Timing notewatch; no fresh money

Elevated (score 205) — acceptable only with real earnings and sponsor backing; artificial-activity lens applies. Phase: MID-MARKUP (68% >200-MA, flow ACC). HIGH sharp-fall risk 35% (top-decile). [fundamentals WATCH, payout 61.0%, yield 2.2%]