Signal library
Every technical signal the engine tracks, backtested across the full DSE history since 1999 — 10-day forward hit rate and expectancy after an assumed 0.5% round-trip cost. WORKS = net expectancy positive, edge ≥1pt over baseline, and statistically significant. MARGINAL = the direction call is real but transaction costs eat the edge. NO-EDGE = not significant, or wrong direction. Long-only DSE: bearish signals are scored as exit/avoid calls, not short trades. Descriptive backtest history — not a recommendation to trade any signal.
| Signal | Bias | Verdict | Hit% | Edge | Net exp% | PF | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stretch<-30% vs MA200 | bull | Works | 54.4% | +9.5 | +2.77% | 1.97 | 42,205 |
| Three White Soldiers | bull | Works | 48.3% | +3.4 | +1.79% | 1.66 | 4,572 |
| RSI<30 oversold | bull | Works | 52.8% | +7.9 | +1.24% | 1.61 | 53,089 |
| 52w-high breakout | bull | Works | 46.4% | +1.6 | +1.21% | 1.4 | 17,548 |
| Bullish Marubozu | bull | No edge | 45.5% | +0.7 | +0.87% | 1.47 | 11,935 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | bull | No edge | 46.0% | +1.1 | +0.67% | 1.33 | 3,114 |
| Ascending Triangle | bull | No edge | 45.3% | +0.4 | +0.55% | 1.29 | 627 |
| Below lower Bollinger | bull | Works | 51.2% | +6.3 | +0.37% | 1.3 | 55,286 |
| Double Bottom | bull | No edge | 43.9% | -1.0 | +0.34% | 1.22 | 14,101 |
| Inverted Hammer | bull | Works | 47.2% | +2.3 | +0.15% | 1.26 | 21,938 |
| Dark Cloud Cover | bear | Works | 58.8% | +3.7 | +0.15% | 1.19 | 5,526 |
| Bullish Engulfing | bull | No edge | 44.7% | -0.2 | +0.04% | 1.17 | 25,192 |
| Above the Stomach | bull | No edge | 43.7% | -1.2 | -0.06% | 1.12 | 21,917 |
| Stochastic<20 | bull | Marginal | 47.4% | +2.5 | -0.09% | 1.14 | 293,462 |
| Three Outside Up | bull | No edge | 43.6% | -1.2 | -0.17% | 1.09 | 10,226 |
| Golden cross 50/200 | bull | No edge | 41.1% | -3.8 | -0.17% | 1.09 | 3,383 |
| Bullish Harami | bull | No edge | 44.7% | -0.2 | -0.2% | 1.1 | 57,964 |
| Dragonfly Doji | bull | No edge | 43.0% | -1.9 | -0.23% | 1.06 | 279 |
| MACD bull cross | bull | No edge | 42.6% | -2.3 | -0.29% | 1.06 | 38,620 |
| Morning Star | bull | No edge | 43.2% | -1.6 | -0.33% | 1.05 | 22,344 |
| Hammer | bull | No edge | 44.9% | +-0.0 | -0.37% | 1.04 | 3,223 |
| Descending Triangle | bear | No edge | 55.7% | +0.6 | -0.41% | 1.03 | 1,292 |
| Three Inside Up | bull | No edge | 42.7% | -2.2 | -0.43% | 1.02 | 8,440 |
| Bearish Engulfing | bear | Marginal | 56.6% | +1.4 | -0.47% | 1.01 | 75,394 |
| Tweezer Bottom | bull | No edge | 43.9% | -1.0 | -0.48% | 1.01 | 9,355 |
| Three Outside Down | bear | Marginal | 55.7% | +0.5 | -0.54% | 0.99 | 34,565 |
| Head & Shoulders | bear | No edge | 53.4% | -1.7 | -0.57% | 0.98 | 3,492 |
| Price reclaims MA200 | bull | No edge | 40.7% | -4.1 | -0.59% | 0.97 | 20,533 |
| Double Top | bear | No edge | 54.5% | -0.7 | -0.61% | 0.97 | 17,116 |
| Piercing Line | bull | No edge | 41.7% | -3.2 | -0.63% | 0.96 | 2,823 |
| Gravestone Doji | bear | No edge | 55.5% | +0.4 | -0.71% | 0.94 | 645 |
| Evening Star | bear | No edge | 54.8% | -0.4 | -0.76% | 0.92 | 13,744 |
| MACD bear cross | bear | No edge | 54.0% | -1.1 | -0.8% | 0.91 | 38,717 |
| Tweezer Top | bear | Marginal | 57.5% | +2.3 | -0.81% | 0.91 | 4,930 |
| Shooting Star | bear | Marginal | 56.7% | +1.6 | -0.86% | 0.9 | 6,636 |
| Hanging Man | bear | Marginal | 56.7% | +1.5 | -0.93% | 0.88 | 6,615 |
| Stretch>50% vs MA200 | bear | No edge | 57.5% | +2.4 | -0.93% | 0.92 | 28,904 |
| Below the Stomach | bear | No edge | 52.1% | -3.1 | -0.96% | 0.86 | 15,779 |
| Three Black Crows | bear | No edge | 53.2% | -1.9 | -0.97% | 0.87 | 18,463 |
| Three Inside Down | bear | No edge | 52.9% | -2.3 | -1.01% | 0.85 | 2,974 |
| Bearish Harami | bear | No edge | 53.5% | -1.6 | -1.04% | 0.83 | 20,714 |
| Bearish Marubozu | bear | No edge | 52.7% | -2.5 | -1.15% | 0.81 | 19,328 |
| Stochastic>80 | bear | Marginal | 55.7% | +0.5 | -1.21% | 0.84 | 122,583 |
| Above upper Bollinger | bear | Marginal | 56.1% | +0.9 | -1.43% | 0.8 | 69,728 |
| RSI>70 overbought | bear | No edge | 55.7% | +0.6 | -1.5% | 0.8 | 52,236 |
| Death cross 50/200 | bear | No edge | 51.2% | -3.9 | -1.52% | 0.72 | 3,279 |
| 52w-low breakdown | bear | No edge | 47.7% | -7.4 | -2.13% | 0.65 | 29,855 |
Hit% = share of occurrences where price moved the called direction over the next 10 sessions. Edge = hit% minus the market baseline for that direction. Net exp% = average forward return after the assumed cost. PF = profit factor (gross gains ÷ gross losses). N = total occurrences across the tracked history. A statistical tendency, not a signal to act on by itself — confirm with trend, volume and levels, same as the per-stock "What's historically fired here" cards.